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dc.contributor.authorElvik, Rune
dc.coverage.spatialNorwaynb_NO
dc.date.accessioned2019-06-28T07:30:40Z
dc.date.available2019-06-28T07:30:40Z
dc.date.created2014-01-29T23:00:58Z
dc.date.issued2013-06-27
dc.identifier.citationAccident Analysis and Prevention. 2013, 59 (October), 301-308.nb_NO
dc.identifier.issn0001-4575
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/2602689
dc.description.abstractSurveys finding that a large majority of drivers regard themselves as safer than the average driver have been ridiculed as showing that most drivers are overconfident about their safety and as showing something which is logically impossible, since in a normal distribution exactly half are below average and half above. This paper shows that this criticism is misplaced. Driver accident involvement does not follow a normal distribution, and it is mathematically entirely possible that a huge majority of drivers could be safer than the average driver. The distribution of accidents in a population of drivers is typically skewed, with a majority of drivers not reporting involvement in any accident in the period covered by the data, often a period of 1–3 years. In this paper, examples are given of data sets in which the percentage of drivers who are safer than the average driver ranges from about 70% to 90%. The paper explains how, based on knowing the mean and variance of the distribution of accidents in a population of drivers in a given period, the long-term expected number of accidents for drivers who were involved in 0, 1, 2, or more accidents can be estimated. Such estimates invariably show that the huge majority of drivers are safer than the average driver.nb_NO
dc.language.isoengnb_NO
dc.publisherElseviernb_NO
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleCan it be true that most drivers are safer than the average driver?nb_NO
dc.title.alternativeCan it be true that most drivers are safer than the average driver?nb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
dc.rights.holder© 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.nb_NO
dc.description.versionsubmittedVersionnb_NO
cristin.unitcode7482,0,0,0
cristin.unitnameTransportøkonomisk institutt
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextpreprint
cristin.qualitycode1
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.aap.2013.06.025
dc.identifier.cristin1104113
dc.source.journalAccident Analysis and Preventionnb_NO
dc.source.volume59nb_NO
dc.source.issueOctobernb_NO
dc.source.pagenumber301-308nb_NO
dc.relation.projectNorges forskningsråd: 208437nb_NO


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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal
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