Vis enkel innførsel

dc.contributor.authorElvik, Rune
dc.date.accessioned2019-12-20T12:24:45Z
dc.date.available2019-12-20T12:24:45Z
dc.date.created2018-02-12T12:43:17Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.citationAalborg Universitet - Trafikdage - Selected papers. 2016nb_NO
dc.identifier.issn1903-1092
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11250/2634294
dc.description.abstractIn many highly motorised countries, the number of traffic fatalities has gone down by about 80 percent since the peak number, which was reached around 1970. What explains this decline? Is it principally the result of road safety policy, or have other factors made a larger contribution? This paper argues that it is difficult to give a scientifically rigorous explanation of the decline in traffic fatalities. There are five main problems: (1) There are very many potentially relevant explanatory variables. (2) Some of the relevant explanatory variables change slowly at an almost constant rate. (3) Data are incomplete or missing about many potentially relevant variables. (4) Some variables are affected by measurement errors or discontinuities in time series. (5) Many of the explanatory variables are very highly correlated with each other and with time. These problems are illustrated using Norway as an example. It is shown that the problems listed above can result in models that are non-sensical although they pass formal tests of model quality. The lesson is that one should never judge how good a model is merely in terms of formal criteria. Some strategies for developing more meaningful models are discussed.nb_NO
dc.language.isoengnb_NO
dc.relation.urihttp://www.trafikdage.dk/papers/soeg/Paper.asp/?PaperID=1841
dc.titleWhy is it so difficult to explain the decline in traffic fatalities?nb_NO
dc.title.alternativeWhy is it so difficult to explain the decline in traffic fatalities?nb_NO
dc.typeJournal articlenb_NO
dc.typePeer reviewednb_NO
cristin.unitcode7482,2,1,0
cristin.unitnameSikkerhet og tiltak
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextpostprint
cristin.qualitycode1
dc.identifier.cristin1564348
dc.source.journalAalborg Universitet - Trafikdage - Selected papersnb_NO
dc.source.pagenumber20nb_NO


Tilhørende fil(er)

Thumbnail

Denne innførselen finnes i følgende samling(er)

Vis enkel innførsel