Technopolis, shared resources or controlled mobility? A net-based Delphi-study to explore visions of future urban daily mobility in Norway

Abstract

It is widely recognized that transformation of urban areas are urgent to meet the demands for more efficient and environmental friendly transportation in the future. Although there are general agreements on the need for change, different ideas and visions for the future dominate across different groups of stakeholders and academics. In this paper we explore various views on the future of everyday travelling in urban regions, 30–40 years ahead, focussing in particular on four larger urban areas in Norway. Based on an innovative web-based Delphi-study, involving 280 national experts, various conceptions of future urban travelling is explored. An explorative factor analysis (principal component analysis) is applied to reveal three slightly different understandings of how the urban future may look like in 2050. These three visions - labelled as “Controlled mobility”, “Technopolis” and “Shared mobility”- suggests slightly different scenarios’ for the future of urban travelling.