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dc.contributor.authorNæss, Petter
dc.contributor.authorAndersen, Jeppe Astrup
dc.contributor.authorNicolaisen, Morten Skou
dc.contributor.authorStrand, Arvid
dc.date.accessioned2021-07-28T12:05:20Z
dc.date.available2021-07-28T12:05:20Z
dc.date.created2013-12-12T09:17:11Z
dc.date.issued2014-05-12
dc.identifier.citationEuropean Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research. 2014, 14 (2), 102-121.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1567-7133
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/11250/2765532
dc.description.abstractThe central concern of this paper is why the traffic-increasing effect of road capacity expansion (induced traffic) is still frequently ignored when preparing decision-support material for proposed infrastructure investments. Earlier research has pointed at ignorance or technical difficulties as likely reasons. This paper offers an additional explanation. Based on an investigation of the opinions of transport modellers, consultants, transport planners and politicians concerning the usefulness, shortcomings and application of forecasting models in transport planning, this paper suggests that transport model forecasts are used in project evaluations primarily to throw light on where and when to build a proposed road infrastructure, not for assessing whether to build it. Since induced traffic is usually not differing so much between the different ‘build’-alternatives, the errors caused by omitting induced traffic in the models are accepted. This way of framing the decision problem is often associated with what has been termed the ‘predict and provide’ paradigm.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherTU Delft Openen_US
dc.relation.urihttp://vbn.aau.dk/files/197640305/N_ss_et_al._2014_Transport_modelling_in_the_context_of_the_predict_and_provide_paradigm.pdf
dc.rightsNavngivelse 4.0 Internasjonal*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/deed.no*
dc.titleTransport modelling in the context of the 'predict and provide' paradigmen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.description.versionpublishedVersionen_US
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1
dc.identifier.doi10.18757/ejtir.2014.14.2.3020
dc.identifier.cristin1075684
dc.source.journalEuropean Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Researchen_US
dc.source.volume14en_US
dc.source.issue2en_US
dc.source.pagenumber102-121en_US


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